Bayesian demography: a brief history, recent applications, and future directions

The use of Bayesian methods in the social sciences has increased rapidly over the past decade, including in the field of demography, where Bayesian methods are used to produce estimates and forecasts of demographic and health indicators across a wide range of populations. In this talk, I will briefly describe the history of use of Bayesian methods in demography, and highlight the strengths of such methods in the context of forecasting, small area estimation, and using non-representative data. I will also discuss ideas for future directions in this area, including in model validation, calibration, and transparency.