An interactive article published in November 2022 in the New York Times, Extreme Heat Will Change Us, discussed how half the world could soon face dangerous heat due to climate change, based on the research of Professor Adrian Raftery (UW Departments of Statistics and Sociology), Professor David Battisti (UW Department of Atmospheric Sciences), and Environmental Fellow, Lucas Vargas Zeppetello (Harvard, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences).

The journalists visited two cities which have already been transformed by climate change – Kuwait City and Basra, Iraq to document what billions may experience as human emissions warm the planet. At extreme temperatures, normal life is impossible and ordinary activities can become dangerous. Zeppetello, Battisti and Raftery predict that by 2050, nearly half the world may live in areas that have dangerous levels of heat for at least a month per year.

The journalists discovered the big gap between those who have the means to protect themselves and those who do not. They also saw the reality that no one can escape debilitating heat entirely. They predict that in the future, many people around the world will migrate to escape the heat. Richer countries that have already tightened their borders may make immigration even more difficult as climate pressure increases.

Link to the articleExtreme Heat Will Change Us - The New York Times (

Probabilistic projections of increased heat stress driven by climate change: